USC football mailbag: Revised predictions, defensive improvement, areas of concern (2024)

We’ve seen our first glimpse of the 2024 edition of the USC Trojans. A dramatic victory over LSU has created plenty of optimism as they prepare for their home opener against Utah State on Saturday night.

With all of that optimism comes great interest, and with great interest comes a lot of questions. Let’s get to them.

Note: Questions have been edited for length.

Do you know what exactly changed for the defense? How does a team go from missing easy tackles to absolutely blowing up some opposing players and beating assignments in one offseason? Also, what are the odds D’Anton Lynn stays at USC if this year goes really well? I heard a great comment that he is one of USC’s top NFL prospects (as a coach). — Daniel L.

I was very skeptical about USC dramatically changing its mindset defensively in just one offseason. The Trojans simply haven’t been tough or physical on defense in a long time. How would that change with a lot of the same characters from a year ago with no real games to build confidence? It can happen, but it’s very hard to do, and it takes time and a talent infusion.

But on the very first drive of the game, it was pretty clear the defense played with more force and physicality. Credit D’Anton Lynn and the defensive coaching staff for instilling that.

I think there are other factors for the improvement we saw in Week 1. We don’t get to watch a ton of practice, but the only way to get better at tackling is to do it in live situations, so I assume USC adjusted the way it practiced. The defensive transfers — like safety Kamari Ramsey — have no doubt expedited the process. Lynn’s scheme is good and causes problems for offenses — we saw that at UCLA in 2023 — and the communication on defense is better, which led to fewer busts. How often did we see USC defenders look around at their teammates after a play, with their palms up, wondering what just happened? That was so common the past few years but not so much against LSU.

Still a lot of season left, but the Trojans displayed good habits defensively on Sunday.

As for your second question, Lynn signed a three-year deal with USC. If things go well, I’d be pretty surprised to see him last the length of that contract. I see the NFL as the Trojans’ threat to retaining Lynn — not another college job. He’s spent most of his coaching career in the NFL, and the Ravens/Michigan scheme has become really popular in pro circles.

The Trojans have logical options on staff though if Lynn were to leave, such as linebackers coach Matt Entz.

Miller Moss isn’t messing around 😱#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/L6F7JLGtTJ

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— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 5, 2024

We’re back, right??? … In all seriousness, though, while we are all celebrating the big win, which unit most needs to improve from Week 1 to be genuine Big Ten challengers? — Simon R.

Two that stand out: The offensive line and the pass rushers. The line can be more consistent in the run game. There were some good moments, but there were also some bad beats and some false starts, and LSU put the line — particularly right tackle Mason Murphy — in conflict a bunch.

The line still did enough to win but has to be better against Michigan and the rest of the schedule.

It’s likely USC’s edge rushers won’t see a better pair of offensive tackles than what they faced against LSU. I actually think the pass rush was a little better down the stretch of that game, but it needs to get more sacks and apply more pressure.

I think Anthony Lucas will be fine and was physical on Sunday. If USC had ideal defensive talent, Jamil Muhammad might be more of a rotational pass rusher and not the starter. I could see Braylan Shelby earning a starting role at some point this season. He showed flashes and notched a critical tackle for loss in the fourth quarter.

1. I’m sure everyone will ask, but what is your revised prediction for the season (assuming you had USC losing to LSU in your initial 7-5 prediction)? 2. If the run defense improvement from Week 1 is legit, does that make you reconsider the difficulty of USC’s schedule? It’s a big if, but they very likely just played the best QB and passing offense on their schedule — Mathieu L.

That was a game I did have as a loss for USC. The defense has already shown signs of being better than expected, so I’ll go with 9-3. A lot will come down to health. USC can’t afford an injury at several spots. On Thursday, Lincoln Riley said linebacker Mason Cobb is questionable for Saturday with an undisclosed injury that limited him during practice this week. The Trojans still have Easton-Mascarenas Arnold and Eric Gentry but are one snap away from having to count on true freshman Desman Stephens II or another unproven player at linebacker. Any injury at offensive tackle would likely impact my outlook as well.

As for your second question, I do think Garrett Nussmeier is probably the best quarterback the Trojans will face this season. That was probably the best passing game USC will see. I would like to see this defense tested by a better run game, and it will be over the next five or six weeks, but I don’t know which offense will have the balance to really strain the defense. Michigan should have the running game, but will it have the passing attack? Same with Penn State. Maybe Notre Dame, but I’m still skeptical about the wideouts. A challenge will surely come up, but I can’t quite pinpoint which team right now.

Is it possible we’re all overestimating how “physical” the traditional Big Ten teams are? I’ve long thought that all this talk about USC, Oregon, et al moving to the B1G would not be this huge wake-up call. If anything, it would be the other way around, and the reputation the B1G brings to the table is a big mix of bias against West Coast teams and self-aggrandizement. Is it possible USC’s high-powered offense and decent defense could blow the doors off of the conference by shutting down their meh offenses and scoring over overrated defenses? — Marcelo T.

I’m truly in the middle ground on this and have no idea how it’ll go. I remember watching the TCU vs. Michigan College Football Playoff semifinal two seasons ago and thinking USC’s offense would be a distinct curveball for the Big Ten.

Then I saw the national championship game between Washington and Michigan last year, and the Wolverines shut down that great offense.

I think there are better defenses in the Big Ten than there were in the Pac-12, but like you said the offenses are kinda meh. The Trojans have the skill to pose some real problems, but the offensive line will go a long way in determining which direction things go this season.

If USC can sustain the defense it played on Sunday, it should be fine against most of these offenses. But like I keep harping on, health will be paramount there.

How much of an impact do you think a win over a top-15 team in the SEC will have on USC’s ability to continue recruiting and hopefully retain the highly ranked Southeastern prospects that Lincoln Riley seems to prefer? Would an effective defense this year coupled with continued success in the win column make landing those five-stars possible? Or do you think the SEC is just too much of a recruiting monster for the Trojans to ever have the success Riley believes they can have? — Sam W.

I think having an improved defense will help. Recruits simply didn’t believe in Alex Grinch and it showed. But I think if a program is going to land some of those high-end national prospects from the South, it has to be pretty aggressive with NIL as well. To date, USC really hasn’t, at least from the high school perspective. Maybe that’ll change over the next few months, but we’ll see.

Will we see coach Riley use Jayden Maiava in short-yardage situations? — Ian L.

I wondered about this before the opener. We didn’t see it against LSU, but I think it could be a possibility at some point. That first third-and-short was tough for USC because the Tigers didn’t respect the QB run so Harold Perkins just crashed down and blew up the play.

Inserting Maiava in a few short-yardage situations would ensure the defense has to account for every possible option on the offense. Maiava can surely throw well enough to keep the defense honest.

Riley utilized Caleb Williams in short-yardage spots while Williams was a freshman at Oklahoma, which sparked the famous Williams-led comeback against Texas in 2021.

So I think we’ll see it eventually.

Do you expect more snaps for DeCarlos Nicholson? Sam Greene? Any for DJ Peevy or other underclassmen? Or do you think what we saw Sunday is basically how they’ll settle? — Owen B.

I asked Lynn if the defensive back rotation would expand in the coming weeks and he said it would be different week to week. Last week was a tight game against a high-profile opponent so I’m sure the staff just leaned on who it trusted most.

I expect more players to earn snaps this week against Utah State, with Nicholson being one of them. I don’t think we’ll see much of Greene or Peevy in the rotation though. Greene seems to be the sixth defensive end behind Lucas, Muhammad, Shelby, Solomon Tuliaupupu and Devan Thompkins. Peevy isn’t listed on the depth chart.

Any concerns regarding the clock management by Lincoln Riley? His poor use of timeouts and lack of game awareness is a big concern. He managed the end of the second quarter badly and wasted time. Additionally, he used two timeouts on the same drive in the fourth quarter. — Ali A.

Some concern for sure. The end of the first half was his first time in a two-minute drill with Miller Moss so he probably wanted to play it safe. Plus, USC got the ball back to start the third quarter so it didn’t need to force anything.

The final drive was getting kind of clunky too until Moss hit Kyron Hudson down the sideline. Things worked out, but it could’ve gotten dicey. Burning those timeouts was the most problematic thing to me. The timeout before the fourth down was rough because the Trojans had to take one right before the previous play.

On Tuesday, Riley said, “I had a couple of god-awful decisions during the game and I told the team that.” So he recognizes there were things he could’ve done better.

While I appreciate your analysis, I often find you very pessimistic. Is there a specific reason for this? — Wheaton J.

More realistic than pessimistic. I’ve been covering college football for 10 years, and aside from the 2022 USC team, I’ve had the incredible luck of covering a lot of mediocre-to-bad football teams and hearing a lot of empty promises from coaches.

Offseason talk doesn’t matter. Games do. And this USC team has the potential to be one of the few exceptions of a program that talks about change and then backs up the talk on the field.

(Photo of Miller Moss: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Antonio Morales covers USC football for The Athletic. Previously, he spent three years at the Clarion Ledger in Mississippi, where he covered Ole Miss for two seasons and Jackson State for another. He also spent two years covering preps for the Orange County Register and Torrance Daily Breeze. Follow Antonio on Twitter @AntonioCMorales